Tag: $FB

Overstock released earnings on Thursday afternoon and the stock originally got absolutely crushed to the downside, however the short float on this name is almost 70% which lead to an immediate short squeeze right at the opening bell Friday morning. The move from Thursday after-hours lows to ridays intraday high was almost +50%! This name has been running massively alongside Bitcoin especially this past week as there has been a mass move from capital within China to Bitcoin which people are terming as a “safe haven”. Sound backward and funky? Its because it is. This name is starting to get ready for us to work into a large short position, and potentially a starter short as early as this week. The key things we have to watch for are 1- the short float 2- the borrow fee, and 3- Bitocoin action. Based on those three indicators we should be able to safely start sizing in short here.

Universal Display Corp ($OLED) is my #1 short that threw me in a whirl of emotions Thursday afternoon and Friday morning. The initial mis reaction that sent he stock spiking upwards of 20%, and the the massive crack that brought the stock down 20% was un unbelievable emotional roller coaster. However, this short has been 6 months in the making, and I know what I have here on my hands, and trusting my self paid off huge. Now, the stock did bounce almost $20 off its lows, but the critical thing was that we saw this stay red post earnings. This name is the most fundamentallly out of whack, over extended name in the market in my opinion. Their massive chinese exposure will be a huge killer to them as the trade war only gets worse. There are a few really critical things to watch here moving forward. First, for an entry tomorrow if you aren’t in, the move under $202 is your trigger pull. But from there, we get really into fun things as long as i’m patient enough. Notice the initial breakdown of the 30 day trendline (the upper red line), we are sitting right on it currently and I expect thsi level to flusuh this week and really settle below this trendline. From there it’s all eyes on the 6-month trendline which is currently around the $175 level, but will move up quickly with each day, by Friday it will likely by above $180 if you chart it out moving forward. THAT is the MAJOR trendline breakdown that i’m looking for that will send this stock down to critical support of $145.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is in the same sector as NVDA above. This thing can get really, really nuts with earnings Tuesday. Current implied volatiliy on earnings is just over 10% but that feels quite low. Note the critical 8 month trendline at stake here. If this gives up $31 its all over for this and 30-50% retrace in the ensuing months is not at all out of the question, especially with how overbought this name is sepcifically, being up over 100% in just the last 7 months. Watch the trendline that I have noted on the right, that will be the tell all. Also notice the last time the stock broke $30 about 10 months ago, it pulled back 50% down to $16 in the course of 1 month. Be ready to act quick on this if earnings are disappointing, and even if they aren’t, this could very very possibly pull an INTC and sell off its initial gap up entirely.